Implied Probability Calculator

Calculate the implied probability of any betting odds. Convert American, Decimal, or Fractional odds to win percentage and discover the true odds without bookmaker margin.

Implied Probability
Implied Probability
True Odds (no vig)
Decimal
Edge vs 50%

How to Calculate Implied Probability

  1. Enter your odds (American, Decimal, or Fractional format)
  2. Select the format from the dropdown
  3. Click Calculate Probability
  4. See the implied probability, true odds (without vig), and your edge

Implied Probability Formulas

From Decimal Odds

Implied % = (1 ÷ Decimal) × 100

Example: Decimal 2.50 → (1 ÷ 2.50) × 100 = 40%

From American Odds (Positive)

Implied % = 100 ÷ (American + 100) × 100

Example: +150 → 100 ÷ 250 × 100 = 40%

From American Odds (Negative)

Implied % = |American| ÷ (|American| + 100) × 100

Example: −200 → 200 ÷ 300 × 100 = 66.7%

From Fractional Odds

Implied % = Denominator ÷ (Numerator + Denominator) × 100

Example: 3/2 → 2 ÷ (3+2) × 100 = 40%

Understanding the Vig (Bookmaker Margin)

A typical football match market:

Outcome Offered Odds Implied %
Home Win 2.10 47.6%
Draw 3.40 29.4%
Away Win 3.20 31.3%
Total 108.3%

The 8.3% excess is the bookmaker’s margin — the “tax” on every bet.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is implied probability?
Implied probability converts betting odds into a win percentage. It represents the bookmaker's assessment of how likely an outcome is. Formula: Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds × 100%. The bookmaker's margin (vig) means implied probabilities for a market add up to more than 100%.
How do I calculate implied probability from American odds?
Positive odds (+150): Implied % = 100 ÷ (American + 100) × 100 = 40%. Negative odds (−200): Implied % = |American| ÷ (|American| + 100) × 100 = 66.7%. Or simply convert to decimal first, then apply 1 ÷ Decimal × 100.
What is the bookmaker's margin (vig)?
The vig (vigorish) is the bookmaker's built-in profit margin. For a fair 50/50 bet, fair decimal odds are 2.00 (50%). A bookmaker might offer 1.90/1.90 instead — implied probabilities: 52.6% + 52.6% = 105.2%. The extra 5.2% is the vig.
What are true odds vs implied odds?
True odds = fair odds without the bookmaker margin. If both sides have 50% true probability, true decimal odds = 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 1.90, the implied probability is 52.6% — meaning you need to win more than 52.6% to profit long-term.
How do I use implied probability to find value bets?
Compare the implied probability to your own estimated probability. If the bookmaker implies 40% but you assess the true probability at 50%, there is value. Bet when your estimated probability > implied probability consistently.